August 14, 2007
by Dagmar
1 Comment
Actually, this is not exactly the question I want to answer with this post. It is borrowed from an article in today’s Financial Times Deutschland, which is titled “For they know not what they doâ€. Author Tobias Bayer looks at the latest bank-failures (or better almost-failures) in Germany and presents some surprisingly simple explanations:
At first, he refers to the ‘too big to fail’-phenomenon. Banks enter too risky and too speculative businesses since they can expect the state to rescue them. The implication for the financial system and the economy would be far too severe. This is what economists call ‘moral hazard’ – wrong incentives lead to wrong behaviours.
However, Bayer argues that the deeper reasons of latest problems are even simpler: Banks have started to do things they don’t understand – for they know not what they do. Almost failed IKB is a mid-sized bank focused on mid-sized companies in Germany. Similarly, troubled WestLB is a German public sector bank that originally was intended to be the central bank for a German federal state and a partner for the local savings banks. Bayer lists several terms from the world of modern finance that are all related to the actual market turmoils (derivatives, conduits, special purpose vehicles, liquidity facilities, securisation structures, investment grade ratings etc), and assumes that such businesses are way outside the banks core business models. Hence, banks were not fully able to evaluate what they entered into.
At this point, Bayer refers to a study from the Bank of England about ‘Causes and Management of Banking Crises’. (I will come back to this later) This study analysed 22 cases of banks which failed or encountered severe difficulties, of which 18 were partly of fully due to mismanagement (poor strategy – 11, poor systems and control – 17). Bayer concludes that both banks, IKB and WestLB lack a sound strategy and business model. They had no answer to the question why they are actually in business and hence, tried to increase their profits with risky businesses. Continue Reading →